How Orme OS scores the forecast from evidence, next to your own call
A forecast that runs on how confident each seller sounds is hard to defend. How Orme OS scores every deal from the evidence on the record, what it takes for a deal to count as commit, and why the agent's call always sits beside the manager's.
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Short answer
Orme OS gives every deal an evidence score from 0 to 100, built from buyer activity, kept commitments, how many people are engaged, stage criteria, momentum and whether the close date holds up. A deal counts as commit only with a high score, an accepted buyer commitment still ahead and a close date in the period. The manager's own call sits beside it.
What is wrong with a forecast built on confidence?
#It measures the seller more than the deal. The forecast call asks each seller how sure they feel, the answers depend on temperament as much as on evidence, and nobody can check them until the quarter ends. The record rarely helps, because the fields that matter were updated from memory, if they were updated at all.
What goes into the Orme OS evidence score?
#- How recently the buyer did something, such as replying, meeting or moving the deal forward.
- Whether commitments made on calls were kept.
- How many people on the buyer's side are engaged.
- Whether the criteria for the current stage are met.
- Momentum: whether the deal is moving or has stalled.
- Whether the close date is credible given everything above.
The score is calculated by fixed rules, not by a model. A model writes only the plain-language explanation, and any model output that tries to carry a score of its own is rejected.
What does it take for a deal to count as commit?
#Three things together: a high evidence score, an accepted commitment from the buyer with a due date still ahead, and a close date inside the forecast period. Deals with mid-range scores are best case. A deal with fewer than two activities linked to evidence cannot be placed above pipeline, however confident anyone feels. Amounts that no person has confirmed are left out of the agent's call.
Why does the agent's call sit next to the manager's?
#Because a manager knows things the record does not, such as a conversation over dinner or a reorganisation that has not been announced. Orme OS shows both calls for every deal and saves both every week. Where they differ, the difference is the conversation the forecast meeting should be having.
How do you know whether to trust the agent's call?
#By comparing it with what happened. The standard Orme OS is built to meet is that, over a full quarter, the agent's call misses by no more than the manager's. Until a team has a closed quarter to measure, the agent's call is a second opinion with its evidence attached, and the manager's call is the one that counts.